AFC West
San Diego Chargers (UNDER 10.5)
CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: The Chargers were 14-2 last year in the regular season (note: just 9-7 against the spread) and widely considered the best team in football, but they lost to the Patriots in the first round of the playoffs. It ended up costing head coach Marty Schottenheimer his job. This year, the Chargers certainly have the talent to put up similar numbers (though they didn't add any free-agent talent in the offseason), but I really think they're going to come up short of many people's expectations. For one thing, Norv Turner takes over as head coach with a career record of 58-82-1. Now, that can't all be pinned on him, but I certainly don't see him as a major upgrade over Schottenheimer (and I'm no Marty apologist). The change in the majority of the coaching staff, including both offensive and defensive coordinators, could have its toll. Another thought is that every team that plays the Chargers is going to come with its best effort. They've got a huge target on their chests. And then look at the schedule . . .
SCHEDULE ANAYLSIS: The Chargers open with a very tough game against the Bears, a matchup that many predicted would take place in last year's Super Bowl. The Chargers are favored by 6 points, but with the Bears having much more stability, I think they pull the upset. But even if the Chargers start off with a win, they they have to travel to New England to take on the Patriots, who have made a lot of moves and are the future-book favorite to win the Super Bowl. The early line at the Las Vegas Hilton has the Pats as a 3.5-point favorite in that matchup. The Chargers then get relatively easy games vs. the Packers and Chiefs before a very tough game at Denver before taking on Oakland at a time when the Raiders might start improving. After their bye, the Chargers play the Texans and Vikings, two games I marked as wins though I could see them getting upset in either, and then face a brutal stretch vs. the Colts, Jaguars and Ravens. Games vs. the Chiefs (win?), Titans (loss?) and Lions (win) are then followed by the Broncos and Raiders. I have them at 9-7. Certainly, they could win another game, but I don't see them winning two more to get over 10.5 -- plus, there are several I have marked as wins that wouldn't be major shockers (at least to me) if they got upset. As added insurance, that win over the Raiders might not be a gimme if the Chargers are 10-5 and can't improve their playoff position.
Sept. 9 Chicago L
Sept. 16 at New England L
Sept. 23 at Green Bay W
Sept. 30 Kansas City W
Oct. 7 at Denver L
Oct. 14 Oakland W
Oct. 21 BYE
Oct. 28 Houston W
Nov. 4 at Minnesota W
Nov. 11 Indianapolis L
Nov. 18 at Jacksonville L
Nov. 25 Baltimore W
Dec. 2 at Kansas City W
Dec. 9 at Tennessee L
Dec. 16 Detroit W
Dec. 24 Denver L
Dec. 30 at Oakland W
Denver Broncos (OVER 9.5)
CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: A four-game losing streak doomed the Broncos' playoff hopes last year as they finished 9-7, but they should bounce back this season. Jay Cutler has assumed the reigns as the starting quarterback and gets new weapons in running back Travis Henry, tight end Daniel Graham and wideout Brandon Stokley. On defense, the Broncos traded for Dre Bly to give them the best set of cornerbacks in the league. This team will definitely challenge the Chargers for the top of the division.
SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: The schedule helps, too, as the Broncos open at Buffalo, get the Raiders at home and then the Jaguars in Denver and then a trip to Indianapolis before playing the Chargers at home. That will be challenging, but then after their bye, the Broncos play the Steelers, Packers, Lions and Chiefs (which are all winnable), then a two-week stretch vs. the Titans and Bears, but then close out the end of the schedule with weak teams except for the rematch with the Chargers. I have them at 11-5, which is plenty of wiggle room for over 9.5, especially since I marked the game vs. the Texans (and former offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak) as a loss.
Sept. 9 at Buffalo W
Sept. 16 Oakland W
Sept. 23 Jacksonville L
Sept. 30 at Indianapolis L
Oct. 7 San Diego W
Oct. 14 BYE
Oct. 21 Pittsburgh W
Oct. 29 Green Bay W
Nov. 4 at Detroit W
Nov. 11 at Kansas City W
Nov. 19 Tennessee L
Nov. 25 at Chicago L
Dec. 2 at Oakland W
Dec. 9 Kansas City W
Dec. 13 at Houston L
Dec. 24 at San Diego W
Dec. 30 Minnesota W
Kansas City Chiefs (UNDER 8)
CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: The Chiefs, who were 9-7 last year, would drop off significantly. Larry Johnson is very good, but he could have a tougher time with guard Will Shields retiring after Willie Roaf retired a year ago. The Chiefs also gave up on Trent Green and downgrade at QB with Damon Huard taking over. Another problem on offense (which used to be the team's strong suit) is the lack of any receiving threats after tight end Tony Gonzalez. The defense will be needed to do a lot more than in year's past, and I don't see that happening.
SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: The Chiefs start on the road at Houston, which I could see them losing, and the oddsmakers have it at pick-em. They then play at Chicago (probable loss) and at home vs. Minnesota (likely win) but then start a stretch vs. the Chargers, Jaguars and Bengals. It doesn't get much easier the rest of the way with games vs. the Broncos (twice), Colts, Chargers, Titans and Jets. A .500 record would be an overachievement.
Sept. 9 at Houston L
Sept. 16 at Chicago L
Sept. 23 Minnesota W
Sept. 30 at San Diego L
Oct. 7 Jacksonville L
Oct. 14 Cincinnati L
Oct. 21 at Oakland W
Oct. 28 BYE
Nov. 4 Green Bay W
Nov. 11 Denver L
Nov. 18 at Indianapolis L
Nov. 25 Oakland W
Dec. 2 San Diego L
Dec. 9 at Denver L
Dec. 16 Tennessee W
Dec. 23 at Detroit W
Dec. 30 x-at New York Jets L
Oakland Raiders (UNDER 5)
CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: The Raiders had the No. 1 draft pick, which they used to draft LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell, after going 2-14. But even if he ends up being as good as advertised, the Raiders have a lot more holes to fill. First-year coach Lane Kiffin replaces Art Shell and has a major rebuilding project. I originally thought the Raiders couldn't help but improve, but a look at the schedule makes me think it migh have to get worse before it gets better.
SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: The Raiders open at home vs. the Lions. I have that as a loss, but they could win. And maybe they'll win Week 3 vs. Cleveland. But then they get a really tough stretch, including the Dolphins, Chargers, Bears, Chiefs, Titans, Texans (which I marked as a win but that's debatable). I have them losing their last eight games and finishing 2-14 just like last year. They might pick up a win here or there, but highly doubt they'll win four more to get over the total of 5.
Sept. 9 Detroit L
Sept. 16 at Denver L
Sept. 23 Cleveland W
Sept. 30 at Miami L
Oct. 7 BYE
Oct. 14 at San Diego L
Oct. 21 Kansas City L
Oct. 28 at Tennessee L
Nov. 4 Houston W
Nov. 11 Chicago L
Nov. 18 at Minnesota L
Nov. 25 at Kansas City L
Dec. 2 Denver L
Dec. 9 at Green Bay L
Dec. 16 Indianapolis L
Dec. 23 at Jacksonville L
Dec. 30 San Diego L
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