Sept. 8-10: NCAA Week 2; NFL Week 1
Last week, I went with 1-2 with my college football plays, winning with Wyoming +4 vs. Virginia and losing with Utah +7 vs. Oregon St. and Toledo +6.5 vs. Purdue.
Graded at risking 1.1 units to win 1, that's a net loss of 1.2 units (+1 for the win and -1.1 for each loss). But I like what reader Maury Ferguson wrote in a thread in the ViewFromVegas Forums called Tuley, play your dogs on the ML. Ferguson, using the handle "fergie," reminded me that last year he suggested that I would show more of a profit if playing my underdogs on the money line instead of against the spread, prompting me to write a column in the Daily Racing Form. It's better to be reminded of this at the beginning of the season as opposed to later.
As a home underdog and a Mountain West Conference team playing one from the ACC, the money line was in the neighborhood of +140 to +150. Even if taking the +140 (which I didn't, and I wasn't looking at the time to see what was available), my net loss on the week would have only -0.6 units (+1.4 for the win and only -1 for the losses) if I had just played the three underdogs on the money line instead of against the spread.
I like that math a lot better, so I responded that I would in fact bet more of my underdog plays on the ML, plus keep a running bankroll of how both styles of betting fare.
Here are my top seven plays on Saturday's college football card (note: they are the same seven plays I'm using on my entry in the Leroy's College Challenge, using the alias "tuleythetout." The money lines were available at the Las Vegas Hilton on Friday afternoon:
Miami-Ohio +8.5 vs. Minnesota (+300)
Oregon +8.5 vs. Michigan (+250)
Notre Dame +17.5 vs. Penn St. (+900)
Air Force +7.5 vs. Utah (+250)
BYU +7.5 vs. UCLA (+250)
TCU +9.5 vs. Texas (+330)
Virginia Tech +12.5 vs. LSU (+375)
And here are my top 5 NFL plays, which are used in my Hilton SuperContest entry under the alias "ViewFromVegas.com":
Browns +4.5 vs. Steelers (+200)
Titans +6.5 vs. Jaguars (+280)
Rams -1 vs. Panthers (-110)
Bears +6 vs. Chargers (+240)
Lions +2 vs. Raiders (+120)
Against the spread, I'll keep all of the above as 1-unit plays. A lot of people just want my picks (to either bet on or against), while others prefer more detailed analysis. For the latter, register at the ViewFromVegas Forums and ask me about any of the above games, or other games. I'll be up until late Friday night updating lots of things on the website, including the Vegas Football Contests page, and will be looking to answer any questions. And then I'll be in and out throughout the day Saturday to discuss more games in the forums.
Best of luck to everyone this weekend (unless you're betting the opposite sides
Graded at risking 1.1 units to win 1, that's a net loss of 1.2 units (+1 for the win and -1.1 for each loss). But I like what reader Maury Ferguson wrote in a thread in the ViewFromVegas Forums called Tuley, play your dogs on the ML. Ferguson, using the handle "fergie," reminded me that last year he suggested that I would show more of a profit if playing my underdogs on the money line instead of against the spread, prompting me to write a column in the Daily Racing Form. It's better to be reminded of this at the beginning of the season as opposed to later.
As a home underdog and a Mountain West Conference team playing one from the ACC, the money line was in the neighborhood of +140 to +150. Even if taking the +140 (which I didn't, and I wasn't looking at the time to see what was available), my net loss on the week would have only -0.6 units (+1.4 for the win and only -1 for the losses) if I had just played the three underdogs on the money line instead of against the spread.
I like that math a lot better, so I responded that I would in fact bet more of my underdog plays on the ML, plus keep a running bankroll of how both styles of betting fare.
Here are my top seven plays on Saturday's college football card (note: they are the same seven plays I'm using on my entry in the Leroy's College Challenge, using the alias "tuleythetout." The money lines were available at the Las Vegas Hilton on Friday afternoon:
Miami-Ohio +8.5 vs. Minnesota (+300)
Oregon +8.5 vs. Michigan (+250)
Notre Dame +17.5 vs. Penn St. (+900)
Air Force +7.5 vs. Utah (+250)
BYU +7.5 vs. UCLA (+250)
TCU +9.5 vs. Texas (+330)
Virginia Tech +12.5 vs. LSU (+375)
And here are my top 5 NFL plays, which are used in my Hilton SuperContest entry under the alias "ViewFromVegas.com":
Browns +4.5 vs. Steelers (+200)
Titans +6.5 vs. Jaguars (+280)
Rams -1 vs. Panthers (-110)
Bears +6 vs. Chargers (+240)
Lions +2 vs. Raiders (+120)
Against the spread, I'll keep all of the above as 1-unit plays. A lot of people just want my picks (to either bet on or against), while others prefer more detailed analysis. For the latter, register at the ViewFromVegas Forums and ask me about any of the above games, or other games. I'll be up until late Friday night updating lots of things on the website, including the Vegas Football Contests page, and will be looking to answer any questions. And then I'll be in and out throughout the day Saturday to discuss more games in the forums.
Best of luck to everyone this weekend (unless you're betting the opposite sides
davtd david david notre dame has no offense and their defense is fair should lose by twenty or more to penn state
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lkaster...kudos on Kentucky over Kent St....and have to give you credit for calling "20 or more" when Penn St. won by 21, but you have to admit it wasn't as easy as you thought, trailing 7-0, not getting clear of the number until the fourth quarter and then Notre Dame having chance to get in the back door.
But hope you come with more winners next week. Thanks.
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thank you, will be sending you winner or winners on wednesday or thursday
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Look forward to them.
Dave
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o.k. you were three and four,to many games you play.i am a old man of 66 and do not play pros to tough,let the younger kids play.have a great week
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Just still catching up to this site
Dave..love the site..have to keep it in mind..Crick's detailed critique of Del Mar was astounding and informative.
Lkaster..you are a kid..10 years older than you..you do horses in addition to football..primarily NFL and horses for me.
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Life is good when you like a team that has a Nutt for coach and a QB named Dick Arkansas plus 3.5 Best play is a blow out Washington State-26. Have fun
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