NFL picks for Sunday, Dec. 14 (bowl contest announcements)
NOTE TO THOSE WHO JUST GET THIS E-MAIL BLAST BUT DON'T FREQUENT THE VIEWFROMVEGAS.COM FORUMS: ViewFromVegas.com is holding two free college bowl contests. The first that can be entered right away is the ESPN Bowl Mania...our group is "View From Vegas" and the password is "tuley" and it's only open to people who receive these Tuley the Tout blogs or are members of the VFV Forums. That's a straight-up contest with no point spreads. The second contest will be hosted in the VFV Forums and involve point spreads and totals on each game. Prizes for the top two winners of each will include dinner for two with yours truly, show tickets for two, a poker set, etc. (champ gets first choice; runner-up gets second choice). If someone wins both contests, they'll receive a ticket to the Final Four in Detroit in April as my guest. Full details, including line for the first block of bowl games, to be posted Monday).
Thanks to everyone for understanding my need to keep my plays under my hat a little bit with me being in contention in the Hilton SuperContest (currently tied for 11th place) and Leroy's Pro Challenge (currently tied for 2nd with Dr. Odds), though between my comments on the Tuesday night podcast, discussions in threads here throughout the week, and my picks published in Daily Racing Form it certainly wouldn't be too hard for my competition to figure out the majority of my plays. But I do want to keep some mystery.
Anyway, with the Hilton releasing contest plays on Friday afternoons, these are certainly no secret:
Buccaneers +3 at Falcons...Bucs' D nowhere near as bad as everyone making them out to be after MNF
49ers +6.5 at Dolphins...see below
Rams +3 vs. Seahawks...Rams getting healthier, Seahawks not to be trusted traveling with Wallace
Chiefs +5 v. Chargers...see below
Giants +3 at Cowboys...see below
Here is my brief write-ups that appear in today's print editions of Daily Racing Form and have been online since Thursday night:
49ers +6 1/2 at Dolphins: The Dolphins have overachieved this year, but with that success has come an overinflation of their lines from oddsmakers and bettors. They won last week going up to Toronto to beat the Bills, but while they've been a live underdog all season, they've failed to cover in their last four games as a favorite vs. the Ravens, Seahawks, Raiders, and Rams. And now along comes the resurgent 49ers, who two weeks ago traveled to Buffalo for a road victory and then knocked off the Jets at home. Anything over a field goal looks like value.
PLAY: 49ers for 1 unit.
Chiefs +5 1/2 vs. Chargers: Yes, the Chiefs are 2-11 in the standings, but they're 7-6 against the spread and nearly upset the Broncos last week. The Chiefs have played their best at home and now face the underachieving Chargers, who beat them only 20-19 in San Diego in Week 10.
PLAY: Chiefs for 1 unit.
Giants +3 at Cowboys: I won't hang the Giants for their loss to the Eagles last week (especially since I was on Philly). They're still the best overall team in the league. If anything, that loss gives them added incentive with the Panthers breathing down their neck for home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, not that the Giants needed any home games to sweep through last year's playoffs. With renewed focus, I think they'll take their act on the road and take great joy in putting a nail in the coffin of the Cowboys' season.
PLAY: Giants for 1 unit.
Last week: 2-1 for a net profit 0.9 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season DRF record: 21-11-2, including 1-2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 7.7 units.
I haven't totally decided which games I'm using in the Leroy's College Challenge because unfortunately some of my Hilton plays (Bucs +3, Rams +3, Giants +3) are line at only +2.5 at Leroy's...that key number is hard to give up.
Here are other games I'm considering using that I've either already bet or I'm waiting to bet. The numbers below are current market numbers:
Lions +17 vs. Colts
Bills +7.5 vs. Jets (unfortunately +6.5 in Leroy's contest)
Texans +3 (unfortunately +2.5 in Leroy's contest)
Steelers +3 (unfortunately +1.5 in Leroy's contest...they're killing me!!!)
Broncos +7.5 vs. Panthers
Vikings +3 EV (at least I get +3.5 in Leroy's contest)
With so many lines not being in my favor, I'm looking strongly at totals today.
Good luck, everyone.
Thanks to everyone for understanding my need to keep my plays under my hat a little bit with me being in contention in the Hilton SuperContest (currently tied for 11th place) and Leroy's Pro Challenge (currently tied for 2nd with Dr. Odds), though between my comments on the Tuesday night podcast, discussions in threads here throughout the week, and my picks published in Daily Racing Form it certainly wouldn't be too hard for my competition to figure out the majority of my plays. But I do want to keep some mystery.
Anyway, with the Hilton releasing contest plays on Friday afternoons, these are certainly no secret:
Buccaneers +3 at Falcons...Bucs' D nowhere near as bad as everyone making them out to be after MNF
49ers +6.5 at Dolphins...see below
Rams +3 vs. Seahawks...Rams getting healthier, Seahawks not to be trusted traveling with Wallace
Chiefs +5 v. Chargers...see below
Giants +3 at Cowboys...see below
Here is my brief write-ups that appear in today's print editions of Daily Racing Form and have been online since Thursday night:
49ers +6 1/2 at Dolphins: The Dolphins have overachieved this year, but with that success has come an overinflation of their lines from oddsmakers and bettors. They won last week going up to Toronto to beat the Bills, but while they've been a live underdog all season, they've failed to cover in their last four games as a favorite vs. the Ravens, Seahawks, Raiders, and Rams. And now along comes the resurgent 49ers, who two weeks ago traveled to Buffalo for a road victory and then knocked off the Jets at home. Anything over a field goal looks like value.
PLAY: 49ers for 1 unit.
Chiefs +5 1/2 vs. Chargers: Yes, the Chiefs are 2-11 in the standings, but they're 7-6 against the spread and nearly upset the Broncos last week. The Chiefs have played their best at home and now face the underachieving Chargers, who beat them only 20-19 in San Diego in Week 10.
PLAY: Chiefs for 1 unit.
Giants +3 at Cowboys: I won't hang the Giants for their loss to the Eagles last week (especially since I was on Philly). They're still the best overall team in the league. If anything, that loss gives them added incentive with the Panthers breathing down their neck for home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, not that the Giants needed any home games to sweep through last year's playoffs. With renewed focus, I think they'll take their act on the road and take great joy in putting a nail in the coffin of the Cowboys' season.
PLAY: Giants for 1 unit.
Last week: 2-1 for a net profit 0.9 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season DRF record: 21-11-2, including 1-2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 7.7 units.
I haven't totally decided which games I'm using in the Leroy's College Challenge because unfortunately some of my Hilton plays (Bucs +3, Rams +3, Giants +3) are line at only +2.5 at Leroy's...that key number is hard to give up.
Here are other games I'm considering using that I've either already bet or I'm waiting to bet. The numbers below are current market numbers:
Lions +17 vs. Colts
Bills +7.5 vs. Jets (unfortunately +6.5 in Leroy's contest)
Texans +3 (unfortunately +2.5 in Leroy's contest)
Steelers +3 (unfortunately +1.5 in Leroy's contest...they're killing me!!!)
Broncos +7.5 vs. Panthers
Vikings +3 EV (at least I get +3.5 in Leroy's contest)
With so many lines not being in my favor, I'm looking strongly at totals today.
Good luck, everyone.
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