NFL divisional playoff picks (Jan. 10-11, 2009)
Here are the comments I posted in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums for this upcoming weekend's NFL divisional playoffs. Tune into our podcast on Tuesday at 8 p.m. VFV Time (aka Pacific Standard Time) by accessing the ViewFromVegas.com home page or ask me about the games in the Forums.
AFC
The lines for next weekend's AFC divisional round were put up as the Ravens were wrapping up their 27-9 win over the Dolphins.
The Titans opened -3 vs. the Ravens with a total of 34 with a 30 percent of rain or snow expected. Palms shaded it with -120 on the Ravens +3. Looks like it's more likely to come down as opposed to move up (though it'll take a LOT of money to get books to move off 3 to 2.5). Leroy's has the total at 35 and some books shading to the over 34.
Books were split on line for the Steelers with Leroy's, Stations and Caesars making it Steelers -6 and the Hilton, Palms, MGM Mirage, Venetian and Golden Nugget at 6.5. The consensus total was 39.5 with the Hilton at 39 and Leroy's at 40 with every other book at 39.5. Again, my recommedations for those betting early:
Based on the market (and my own thoughts on the matchup) bet these sooner rather than later:
Ravens +3 -110 vs. Titans...over 34
Steelers -6 vs. Chargers...grab under 40 if you can get it...I'll likely bet the over later in the week if it comes down further (30 percent chance of snow with temps in 10s or 20s)
NFC
After the Eagles defeated the Vikings on Sunday, the lines were posted for this upcoming weekend's NFC divisional playoffs.
The Giants opened -4.5 vs. the Eagles in Saturday night's game with a total of 40 at the Las Vegas Hilton. The spread got bet down to 4 and then back up to 4.5 while the total raised to 41. The Venetian opened at 4 and Stations and the Palms put up 5 (just like Pinny offshore) with the MGM Mirage making it 5.5, which was quickly bet down. The side hasn't settled even by early Tuesday morning. The Hilton, Venetian and Golden Nugget are at Giants -4 with most books at 4.5 and the Palms now at 5. The total ranges from 39.5 at the Hilton with Caesars, Stations and Palms at 40.5.
The Panthers opened -10 vs. the Cardinals with a total of 46.5 at the Hilton. That total was much lower than Stations, which put up 49. The Hilton quickly went to 48 and then 48.5. The side was more stable with Leroy's and Venetian putting up 9.5. The spread has pretty much settled at 10, though the Venetian has it at 9.5 and the Stratosphere has it at 10.5 but with with -120 on the +10.5. The total is a solid 48 though the Hilton has it at 48.5 as of this writing.
Based on the market (and my own thoughts on the matchup), here's what I like. I'll add my analysis later in the week:
Cardinals +10 vs. Panthers...under 48 (48.5 if you can get it)
Giants -4 vs. Eagles...over 40 (again, 39.5 if you can get it)
AFC
The lines for next weekend's AFC divisional round were put up as the Ravens were wrapping up their 27-9 win over the Dolphins.
The Titans opened -3 vs. the Ravens with a total of 34 with a 30 percent of rain or snow expected. Palms shaded it with -120 on the Ravens +3. Looks like it's more likely to come down as opposed to move up (though it'll take a LOT of money to get books to move off 3 to 2.5). Leroy's has the total at 35 and some books shading to the over 34.
Books were split on line for the Steelers with Leroy's, Stations and Caesars making it Steelers -6 and the Hilton, Palms, MGM Mirage, Venetian and Golden Nugget at 6.5. The consensus total was 39.5 with the Hilton at 39 and Leroy's at 40 with every other book at 39.5. Again, my recommedations for those betting early:
Based on the market (and my own thoughts on the matchup) bet these sooner rather than later:
Ravens +3 -110 vs. Titans...over 34
Steelers -6 vs. Chargers...grab under 40 if you can get it...I'll likely bet the over later in the week if it comes down further (30 percent chance of snow with temps in 10s or 20s)
NFC
After the Eagles defeated the Vikings on Sunday, the lines were posted for this upcoming weekend's NFC divisional playoffs.
The Giants opened -4.5 vs. the Eagles in Saturday night's game with a total of 40 at the Las Vegas Hilton. The spread got bet down to 4 and then back up to 4.5 while the total raised to 41. The Venetian opened at 4 and Stations and the Palms put up 5 (just like Pinny offshore) with the MGM Mirage making it 5.5, which was quickly bet down. The side hasn't settled even by early Tuesday morning. The Hilton, Venetian and Golden Nugget are at Giants -4 with most books at 4.5 and the Palms now at 5. The total ranges from 39.5 at the Hilton with Caesars, Stations and Palms at 40.5.
The Panthers opened -10 vs. the Cardinals with a total of 46.5 at the Hilton. That total was much lower than Stations, which put up 49. The Hilton quickly went to 48 and then 48.5. The side was more stable with Leroy's and Venetian putting up 9.5. The spread has pretty much settled at 10, though the Venetian has it at 9.5 and the Stratosphere has it at 10.5 but with with -120 on the +10.5. The total is a solid 48 though the Hilton has it at 48.5 as of this writing.
Based on the market (and my own thoughts on the matchup), here's what I like. I'll add my analysis later in the week:
Cardinals +10 vs. Panthers...under 48 (48.5 if you can get it)
Giants -4 vs. Eagles...over 40 (again, 39.5 if you can get it)
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