Tuley the Tout: Super Bowl picks and props
Super Bowl Sunday is here. I've had requests to post my plays in this blog in addition to my multiple posts in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums. Go there to see some of the discussion myself and other VFV members have been having leading up to the big game. In addition, if you're online later today during the game, check out the OFFICIAL ViewFromVegas in-game thread that I will be hosting at the top of the forums as I'll discuss the many proposition wagers as they're decided during the course of the game, as well as comments on the game in general.
So, here's my prediction as it appeared in Saturday's print editions of Daily Racing Form, followed by my recommendations on some of the countless prop bets available. Good luck, everyone.
Cardinals +7 (-120) vs. Steelers
Regular readers of this column may recall that I've been on the Cardinals in all three of their playoff wins, so it should come as no surprise that I'm on them one last time.
But it's not just out of a sense of loyalty but because there's still value in the line. I'm thoroughly convinced this line shouldn't be more than a field goal, and that pick-em might be the fairest line because either team can win.
For most of the past two weeks, this line has sat at the Steelers -7, though earlier this week we started to see some books go to 6 1/2. As much as I like the Cardinals (and I also suggest a wager on them to win the game outright at odds of 2-1 or better), I strongly recommend people take them +7 instead of +6 1/2, even if you have to lay -120 (risking $1.20 for every $1 you want to win) instead of the standard -110.
As Rood alluded to above, the matchup everyone is looking at is the Cardinals' high-flying offense against the Steelers' No. 1-ranked defense. Warner spreads the ball around to Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston. And while the passing attack has been the focus of the offense as well as opposing defenses, the Cardinals have found a running attack in the postseason with a rejuvenated Edgerrin James.
The Steelers are stout against the run, but if they bring in extra defensive backs to combat the pass, the Cardinals have shown they are capable of picking up big chunks of yards on the ground. This is a more balanced offense than was seen during the regular season.
The Cardinals' defense is also much improved. Its best performance was standing up to the Panthers' running game in the divisional playoffs, and they can do the same here. The key has been the play of the Arizona defensive backs, who have clamped down on opposing receivers, allowing safety Adrian Wilson to come up to support against the run like almost another linebacker.
The Cardinals' pass rush has been relentless, and the Steelers' protection of QB Ben Roethlisberger has been spotty all year. I think this is where the game will be won or lost. As we saw versus the Ravens, Roethlisberger was under pressure but was able to escape and make plays outside the pocket - which he has done his whole career. He's adept at stepping away from the rush and being able to throw on the move. If the Cardinals can wrap him up when they have him dead to rights, they'll probably win. If Big Ben escapes, he'll be able to make big plays downfield.
These teams didn't face each other this season, but they did meet in 2007 with a lesser Arizona team beating an undefeated Pittsburgh team 21-14. At the time, Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt, the former Steelers offensive coordinator who was passed over for the head coaching job that went to Mike Tomlin, said he took pride in beating his former team. In that game, the Cardinals sacked Roethlisberger four times, intercepted him twice (you think Whisenhunt knows how to game plan vs. his former pupil?) and Fitzgerald caught 10 passes for 120 yards. I see no reason they can't duplicate that performance.
All this being said, it is just one game, even if it is the Super Bowl, so wager within your budget.
The play: Cardinals for 1 unit.
NFC/AFC title games: 1-1 for net loss of 0.1 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season DRF record: 31-19-2 (62 percent), including 3-2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 10.9 units.
Cardinals -10.5 +800 (just for a small amount, but would be icing on the cake if they can get the blowout)
Steelers-Cardinals under 41.5 +175 (closer to the truer total, plus better than 8-5)
Kurt Warner first rushing attempt over 0.5 +400 (I think he'll run...whether he gets away from the rush is another matter)
Cardinals to score first +125
First score of game (any other score than TD) +165...I'm thinking Arizona field goal (which is available at 7-2)
Cardinals to score last in first half +120
Will there be a special teams or defensive TD...yes +155 (could be either team)
Game to be tied after 0-0...yes +115
Players to have a pass attempt over 2.5 +190 (either QB could be knocked out, halfback pass, fake punt or FG)
Mewelde Moore under 14.5 rushing yards -110 (Parker to get bulk of work)
Hines Ward under 65.5 yards receiving -110 (especially if he's less than 100%)
Nate Washington to have a rushing attempt +210 (Steelers bound to try some trickaration)
Steelers to have a rushing attempt over 4.5 +150 (kinda ties in with above)
Steelers under 27 points -110 (meshes with my Cards/under wagers)
Will Steelers score in 1st AND 2nd quarters...no +145 (Cards' defense still underrated)
Kurt Warner longest completion over 39.5 -110 (looks off safeties well, will go deep often)
Kurt Warner to throw a TD pass in 3rd quarter +210 (more likely if Cards win toss and defer to 2nd half)
Edgerrin James longest rush...over 8.5 yards -120
Steve Breaston over 39.5 receiving yards (REALLY like this one, 1006 yards this season, Warner likes him...Pitt can't cover everyone)
Total number of Cardinals to score...over 3 -120 (Rackers plus 2 other guarantees push)
Rushing yards by Cardinals...over 68.5 -110 (especially if they grab lead)
Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger to throw first TD pass +105
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Kurt Warner to throw first interception +175
Steve Breaston vs. Nate Washington most receiving yards -4.5 -110
Hines Ward vs. Larry Fitzgerald to get first reception +165 (shaded too high on assumption Cards get the ball first)
Santonio Holmes vs. Anquan Boldin to get first reception +160 (ditto)
Cards first-half points +17.5 vs. Steelers full-game points -110 (like this better than Cards -7 full-game vs. Steelers' 1st half)
Jersey number of 1st player to score TD...over 38.5 -110 (in addition to QBs, most RBs, also get Fitzgerald and Holmes)
Lebron James points+assists vs. Steelers-Cardinals points +12.5 -110 (meshes with under bet, Lebron to go off)
Edgerrin James to score 1st TD 20-1 (also tempted Warner 20-1 and Roethlisberger 25-1)
First scoring play is Cardinals field goal 7-2
Last scoring play is Cardinals field goal 5-1 (especially if they're ahead)
Double result...tie at halftime/Steelers win 8-1 (not as juicy as year's past)
Double result...tie at halftime/Cardinal win 15-1 (but I can still see tie at halftime to guarantee profit)
Double result...Cardinals score first and win 5-1 (if they score first, ML now pays 5-1)
So, here's my prediction as it appeared in Saturday's print editions of Daily Racing Form, followed by my recommendations on some of the countless prop bets available. Good luck, everyone.
Cardinals +7 (-120) vs. Steelers
Regular readers of this column may recall that I've been on the Cardinals in all three of their playoff wins, so it should come as no surprise that I'm on them one last time.
But it's not just out of a sense of loyalty but because there's still value in the line. I'm thoroughly convinced this line shouldn't be more than a field goal, and that pick-em might be the fairest line because either team can win.
For most of the past two weeks, this line has sat at the Steelers -7, though earlier this week we started to see some books go to 6 1/2. As much as I like the Cardinals (and I also suggest a wager on them to win the game outright at odds of 2-1 or better), I strongly recommend people take them +7 instead of +6 1/2, even if you have to lay -120 (risking $1.20 for every $1 you want to win) instead of the standard -110.
As Rood alluded to above, the matchup everyone is looking at is the Cardinals' high-flying offense against the Steelers' No. 1-ranked defense. Warner spreads the ball around to Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston. And while the passing attack has been the focus of the offense as well as opposing defenses, the Cardinals have found a running attack in the postseason with a rejuvenated Edgerrin James.
The Steelers are stout against the run, but if they bring in extra defensive backs to combat the pass, the Cardinals have shown they are capable of picking up big chunks of yards on the ground. This is a more balanced offense than was seen during the regular season.
The Cardinals' defense is also much improved. Its best performance was standing up to the Panthers' running game in the divisional playoffs, and they can do the same here. The key has been the play of the Arizona defensive backs, who have clamped down on opposing receivers, allowing safety Adrian Wilson to come up to support against the run like almost another linebacker.
The Cardinals' pass rush has been relentless, and the Steelers' protection of QB Ben Roethlisberger has been spotty all year. I think this is where the game will be won or lost. As we saw versus the Ravens, Roethlisberger was under pressure but was able to escape and make plays outside the pocket - which he has done his whole career. He's adept at stepping away from the rush and being able to throw on the move. If the Cardinals can wrap him up when they have him dead to rights, they'll probably win. If Big Ben escapes, he'll be able to make big plays downfield.
These teams didn't face each other this season, but they did meet in 2007 with a lesser Arizona team beating an undefeated Pittsburgh team 21-14. At the time, Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt, the former Steelers offensive coordinator who was passed over for the head coaching job that went to Mike Tomlin, said he took pride in beating his former team. In that game, the Cardinals sacked Roethlisberger four times, intercepted him twice (you think Whisenhunt knows how to game plan vs. his former pupil?) and Fitzgerald caught 10 passes for 120 yards. I see no reason they can't duplicate that performance.
All this being said, it is just one game, even if it is the Super Bowl, so wager within your budget.
The play: Cardinals for 1 unit.
NFC/AFC title games: 1-1 for net loss of 0.1 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season DRF record: 31-19-2 (62 percent), including 3-2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 10.9 units.
Cardinals -10.5 +800 (just for a small amount, but would be icing on the cake if they can get the blowout)
Steelers-Cardinals under 41.5 +175 (closer to the truer total, plus better than 8-5)
Kurt Warner first rushing attempt over 0.5 +400 (I think he'll run...whether he gets away from the rush is another matter)
Cardinals to score first +125
First score of game (any other score than TD) +165...I'm thinking Arizona field goal (which is available at 7-2)
Cardinals to score last in first half +120
Will there be a special teams or defensive TD...yes +155 (could be either team)
Game to be tied after 0-0...yes +115
Players to have a pass attempt over 2.5 +190 (either QB could be knocked out, halfback pass, fake punt or FG)
Mewelde Moore under 14.5 rushing yards -110 (Parker to get bulk of work)
Hines Ward under 65.5 yards receiving -110 (especially if he's less than 100%)
Nate Washington to have a rushing attempt +210 (Steelers bound to try some trickaration)
Steelers to have a rushing attempt over 4.5 +150 (kinda ties in with above)
Steelers under 27 points -110 (meshes with my Cards/under wagers)
Will Steelers score in 1st AND 2nd quarters...no +145 (Cards' defense still underrated)
Kurt Warner longest completion over 39.5 -110 (looks off safeties well, will go deep often)
Kurt Warner to throw a TD pass in 3rd quarter +210 (more likely if Cards win toss and defer to 2nd half)
Edgerrin James longest rush...over 8.5 yards -120
Steve Breaston over 39.5 receiving yards (REALLY like this one, 1006 yards this season, Warner likes him...Pitt can't cover everyone)
Total number of Cardinals to score...over 3 -120 (Rackers plus 2 other guarantees push)
Rushing yards by Cardinals...over 68.5 -110 (especially if they grab lead)
Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger to throw first TD pass +105
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Kurt Warner to throw first interception +175
Steve Breaston vs. Nate Washington most receiving yards -4.5 -110
Hines Ward vs. Larry Fitzgerald to get first reception +165 (shaded too high on assumption Cards get the ball first)
Santonio Holmes vs. Anquan Boldin to get first reception +160 (ditto)
Cards first-half points +17.5 vs. Steelers full-game points -110 (like this better than Cards -7 full-game vs. Steelers' 1st half)
Jersey number of 1st player to score TD...over 38.5 -110 (in addition to QBs, most RBs, also get Fitzgerald and Holmes)
Lebron James points+assists vs. Steelers-Cardinals points +12.5 -110 (meshes with under bet, Lebron to go off)
Edgerrin James to score 1st TD 20-1 (also tempted Warner 20-1 and Roethlisberger 25-1)
First scoring play is Cardinals field goal 7-2
Last scoring play is Cardinals field goal 5-1 (especially if they're ahead)
Double result...tie at halftime/Steelers win 8-1 (not as juicy as year's past)
Double result...tie at halftime/Cardinal win 15-1 (but I can still see tie at halftime to guarantee profit)
Double result...Cardinals score first and win 5-1 (if they score first, ML now pays 5-1)
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